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The Mr. 80% Blog

September 3, 2014

Mr. 80%

 

It’s a brand new year and I’m prepped and excited to deliver you the tips and hints that will help you win your fantasy football leagues and weekly games.  For first time readers my blog is dedicated to bring you 80% accurate forecasts that will allow for optimum fantasy output.  Everything in my blog will work against traditional wisdom across the industry.  2014 is upon us and it’s time for you to capitalize on Mr. 80%.

NFL Season Predictions:

  • The San Diego Chargers will finish with a better record than the Kansas City Chiefs.
  • Arian Foster (RB-HOU) will be a top 6 rb at seasons end in total points.
  • Jeremy Maclin (WR-PHI) will be a top 15 WR (wanted to say top 10 but will err conservative).
  • Chris Johnson (RB-NYJ) has 1500 combined yards.
  • Nick Foles (QB-PHI) finishes as a top 4 QB in total points.
  • Andre Ellington (RB-ARZ) is top 3 in the NFC in yards from scrimmage.
  • James Jones (WR-OAK) scores more than 10 tds.
  • Brandon Cooks (WR-NOS) does NOT win rookie of the year.
  • Toby Gerhardt (RB-JAC) is top 5 in the league in total carries.
  • Carson Palmer (QB-ARZ) outscores Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, and RG3.

 

These are the weekly money making predictions:

  • James Jones (WR-OAK) scores a TD against the Jets

This week the Raiders named Derrick Carr the new starting QB.  In the preseason he had a good connection with the newly acquired former Packer.  The Raiders might be keen to the running game but they are also the victim of a weak defense.  They will be behind a lot and this week against the Jets will be no different, forcing them to throw alot.  James Jones has always been a TD centered WR and he gets at least one score Sunday.

 

  • The Saints and Falcons will combine for over 60 points

The Saints have been amongst the highest scoring offenses in the NFL since the acquisition of Drew Brees.  The Falcons are coming off a down year but have all of their tools back and a gunslinger in Matt Ryan itching to pull the trigger.  Both of the defenses are at the bottom of the pack.  This war on the quick turf will be a high flying affair with lots of passes and, more importantly, lots of trips to the end zone.  Look for a 35-28 type game.  All fantasy options should be in play.

  • Colin Kaepernick accounts for 3 Tds vs. the Cowboys

I know I predicted that Palmer outscore Kaepernick and the trio of run/pass Qbs.  However, Kaepernick will not play the Cowboys every week.  In week one he gets by far the worst defense in the NFL.  If not for the potential of a blowout I might go out on the limb and say 4.  2 in the air and 1 on the ground seem a lock.

  • Doug Martin is held under 70 yards vs. the Panthers

The rising star RB in fantasy drafts toward the end of draft season was Doug Martin.  I think it is completely deserved.  By seasons end, I expect Martin to be among the leaders in touches for all RBs.  However, I am also a big believer in the Carolina defense.  They are big and fast and play well as a unit.  I have a feeling that Ron Rivera is going to want to shut down Martin and have Josh McCown prove that last year wasn’t’ a fluke.

  • Cairo Santos will score over 12 points vs. the Titans

Who?  Exactly.  Rookie kicker Cairo Santos is set to take the PK duties for the Chiefs after the release of perennial starter Ryan Succop.  The Chiefs move the ball but the Titans are a defense that gets pretty stingy inside the red zone.  I look for minimum 3 fgs and 3 xps.  Count on more than that.

  • Riley Cooper goes for over 100 yards and a TD vs. the Jaguars

You’ll come to learn that I am all in on the Eagles this season.  I love what Nick Foles did as the starter and the sheer volume of plays that the Eagles will run.  I really like Riley Cooper who proved to have great chemistry with Nick Foles and seems to get the fast paced offense better than any Eagles WR.  Look for 10+ targets for RC.

  • Alfred Morris scores 2 TDs vs. the Texans

I like the D Line of the Texans with their great pass rush.  That being said, that rush does not translate to stopping the run.  The Texans have been susceptible to big physical runners and Morris is certainly one of those.  I’m not sure he has a big day yardage wise but I’m thinking that his 8+ red zone carries will lead to 2 trips to pay dirt.

  • Julian Edelman catches at least 11 balls vs. the Dolphins

I LOVE Edelman in all PPR formats this year.  A shaky Gronk, oft injured Amendola, and a couple of other no names leave a huge share of the receptions to #11.  Tom Brady will look to throw over to 40 times and 25-30% should head to Edelman with whom he has great confidence and rapport.

  • Chicago Bears D forces 4+ turnovers

As bad as EJ Manuel has looked this preseason I am tempted to predict a Bears defensive TD.  Regardless, they will wreak havoc on the Bills signal caller all day.  I’m not super high on the Bears defense on the season (esp.in their division) but a visit to Buffalo should be a feast.  The Bears will score early and often.  The Bills will be forced to take to the air which does not bode well for Manuel against the ball hawks for Chicago.

  • Mike Wallace is held for under 70 yards and no Tds

I’m not as high on Ryan Tannehill as are many FF experts.  I think that he is a very average player and that his system is not geared for fantasy success.  I do think Mike Wallace is very talented and could breakout.  However, Darrel Revis waits in the wings.  Although he is not the dominant complete lockdown that he used to be, he is still talented enough to hold Wallace in check and out of the endzone.

 

That is the Mr. 80% forecast for Week 1 of the 2014 NFL season.  Feel free to leave feedback or tweet @adayonsports

Have a good night and drive home safely.

 

 

 

 

 

 

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One Comment leave one →
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